Probabilities (fivethirtyeight.com)
| team | position | project points | now | relegated | qualify for ucl | win league |
| Porto | 1 (100%) | 91 | 91 | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Sporting Lisbon | 2 (100%) | 85 | 85 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Benfica | 3 (100%) | 74 | 74 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Braga | 4 (100%) | 65 | 65 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Gil Vicente | 5 (100%) | 51 | 51 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vitoria Guimarães | 6 (100%) | 48 | 48 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Santa Clara Broncos | 7 (100%) | 40 | 40 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Famalicão | 8 (100%) | 39 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Estoril Praia | 9 (100%) | 39 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Marítimo | 10 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Boavista | 12 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Portimonense | 13 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Paços de Ferreira | 11 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vizela | 14 (100%) | 33 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Arouca | 15 (100%) | 31 | 31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Moreirense | 16 (100%) | 29 | 29 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Tondela | 17 (100%) | 28 | 28 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Belenenses | 18 (100%) | 26 | 26 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
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